Spatiotemporal Variations and Uncertainty in Crop Residue Burning Emissions over North China Plain: Implication for Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Large uncertainty exists in the estimations of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions from crop residue burning, which could be a key source quantifying impact agricultural fire on regional air quality. In this study, we investigated burning their North China Plain (NCP) using three widely used methods, including statistical-based, burned area-based, radiative power-based methods. The impacts biomass atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) were also examined by global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation. found to high June followed October, is harvest times for main crops NCP. estimates CO2 emission exhibits large interannual variation 2003 2019, with rapid growth 2012 remarkable decrease 2013 indicating effects quality control plans recent years. Through Monte Carlo simulation, each estimation was quantified, ranging 20% 70% at level. Concerning spatial uncertainty, it that highly uncertain small areas maximum changes up 140%. While fire, i.e., southern parts NCP, coefficient mostly ranged 30% 100% gridded may lead change surface concentration during NCP more than 1.0 ppmv. results study highlighted significance modeling as variations affect emission-driven increases pollutants summertime pollution events substantial fraction region.